Annual demand recovered across virtually all sectors the notable exception being ETFs, which saw net annual outflows. World Gold Council; Disclaimer. Trend change is assumed when a specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more. Moving average slope: if current MA is higher than previous MA, upward slope +1, else -1 Restructure, 3. Netherlands. This guide was created by MacroVars team of professional fund managers and economists to enable you understand the principles of trading and investing. Also known as antique crafted gold these are chunky 24K gold products that evoke the style and craftmanship of ancient China with matte finishing and traditional cultural designs. If credit is used to purchase productive resources, it helps economic growth and income. According to the IMF definition, international reserves consist of the sum of the countrys foreign exchange, To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. 2021 demand for jewellery in Vietnam was 12t, 11% higher than the 2020 figure of 11t. WebGermany is the second largest holder of gold in the world. Transaction Status, Reset To achieve this, we have made some improvements to the way that we present the demand and supply data in Gold Demand Trends. Further, rising policy rates and the end of bond-buying programmes could be detrimental to financial markets much as they have arguably been very supportive over the last few years. Please. As we continue to look for ways to improve and enhance our research and analysis, these changes help us to achieve our ambition to make our data as clear and easy to understand as possible. While the jewellery market has improved, consumers are still reluctant to make big-ticket purchases. The availability of credit is determined by the countrys central bank. In June, the Russian Minister of Finance, Anton Siluanov, announced that 20% of the assets of the National Wealth Fund (NFW the Russian public pension fund will be invested in gold. Central bank net purchases totalled 463t in 2021. The pace of buying slowed in the second half, with a 22% y-o-y decline in Q4. These types of wearable technology are becoming increasingly popular, and will continue to support demand for high-end LEDs. A higher-than-normal proportion of wedding jewellery purchases were part funded by gold-for-gold exchange, rather than by the proceeds of an outright sale of gold. deficits when no local or foreign investors. Cyclical stock sectors are sectors of stocks whose earnings are more sensitive to the business cycle and the economic growth. This result was slightly lower than prior year adjusted total of 95.7 million ounces after adjusting for the KCGM and Red Lake divestments. During risk on periods US stocks rise while US bonds are sold and vice-versa. Monitor global financial markets and economies using MacroVar financial data analytics. statistic alerts) please log in with your personal account. Defensive stock sectors are sectors of stocks whose earnings are less sensitive to the business cycle. The strong end to the year helped lift annual investment 43% to 186t. GlobalFinancial Markets Overview A 2% increase in reserves over 2019 was primarily driven by increase at South Deep, resulting from a reduced COG and updated mine design MacroVar monitors various macroeconomic and financial factors affecting each financial market. Pushya Nakshatra falls a few days ahead of Dhanteras (the first day of the festival of Diwali) and in 2021 this started on 24 October and ended on 25 October. Data between Q1 2010 and Q4 2013 is a synthesis of Metals Focus and GFMS, Thomson Reuters data, which was created using relatively simple statistical techniques. For a comprehensive list of the funds we track or to subscribe to our monthly update on gold-backed ETF holdings, visit. Demand is likely to continue to pick up as Vietnams economic recovery boosts consumer confidence. **Estimated. MacroVar Trend model for Macroeconomic Indicators Safe Assets (Risk-Off): US Treasuries, German Bunds, Defensive Sectors / Industries, US Dollar DXY, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Gold For funds that include physical holdings of multiple precious metals, the total AUM depicted for such funds is lower than their actual total AUM. Finally, supply had a somewhat neutral effect as higher marginally mine production was counterbalanced by considerably lower recycling. On the other hand, as local retailers increase the range of per-gram priced products in their inventory, they prefer to focus on items with higher added value from craftsmanship, in order to pursue higher margins. Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Interpreting Global PMI: Readings above 50 indicator economic expansion, while readings below 50 indicate economic contraction. The net impact in the physical market of mining companies gold forward sales, loans and options positions. Economic growth is measured by Real GDP and inflation by CPI, PPI. Ongoing safety-related stoppages in the Shandong province saw Chinese mine production down 10% y-o-y. This captures all gold used in the fabrication of electronics, dental, medical, decorative and other technological applications, with electronics representing the largest component of this category. WebThis statistic presents the gold reserves of largest gold holding countries worldwide as of the third quarter of 2022. Finally, the Surplus/Deficit label did not fully explain what was captured within this data series. Learn more about how Statista can support your business. Click to check the Best & Worst Assets during Stagflation. In September 2020 the central bank shifted to more actively trading gold to maintain its gold reserves at a more optimal level of around 10% of total reserves. During periods of global economic growth, capital flows from developed markets into developing nations looking for higher returns. Annual demand for the region grew 21% to 68t. Output in H2 2021 was unchanged compared to H2 2020. Though Germany total reserves (includes gold) fluctuated substantially in recent years, it tended to increase through 1972 - 2021 period ending at 295,736 million US dollars in 2021. This was largely due to the comparison with a weak H1 2020 when markets were in lockdown and distress selling was seen in some markets notably Thailand in response to the pandemic. Explore MacroVar financial knowledge base structured by professional fund managers and economists. While the absolute volume of buying andlevel of gold reserves remains small, this is part of a growing trend among various African central banks to buy domestically-mined gold using local currencies. While the initial COVID-induced buying reaction cooled down during the year, macroeconomic uncertainties kept interest in bullion high. The most important trend indicator This differs from jewellery consumption as it excludes stock building/de-stocking by manufacturers and distributors. We want to make the gold market, and our data, clear and easy to understand at a glance. Markets in the Middle East all witnessed significant double-digit y-o-y growth rates in 2021. Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council, Diverse demand in H1 came from both new and regular buyers, Country-level data based on available IMF IFS and respective central bank data at time of publication. A country can control its debt by either: 1. The total of mine production, net producer hedging and recycling. February 2023 Data - 1998-2022 Historical, European Stocks End Week on Negative Note, German 10Y Bond Yield Stabilizes Around 2.3%, German Current Account Surplus Narrows Slightly in January, Germany Wholesale Inflation at 22-Month Low, German Inflation Rate Confirmed at 8.7% in February, German Electricity Prices Hover Around 130, Germany Industrial Growth Strongest in 2-1/2 Years, Germany Construction Sector Contracts the Least Since March 2022, Wall Street Rattles As First Republic Sinks, Spain Stocks Weekly Decline Largest in Over a Year, French Stocks End in the Red, Book Weekly Loss, South African Stocks End Lower, Post Sharp Weekly Loss, FTSE 100 Closes Near Four-Month Lows, Posts Sharpest Weekly Decline Since February 2022. Finally, the 4 values are aggregated daily. Chinas gold bar and coin demand reached 77t in Q4, taking the 2021 annual total to 285t, a 44% increase on 2020 and a three-year high. the extreme weakness of 2020). Depletion of 7.5 million ounces was largely replaced by additions before revisions of 4.9 million ounces and net revisions of 1.1 million ounces primarily from mine plan improvements. According to reports, most of All rights reserved. Note: Five-year average of H1 demand between 2016 and 2020, and ten-year average of H1 demand between 2011 and 2020. Stock Sectors are categorized not cyclical sectors and defensive sectors. Eight-year high in bar and coin demand collides with annual ETF outflows. For an explanation of these terms, please see the Notes and definitions. Despite the significant uptick in Q4 demand, the net result for 2021 was a 43% decrease in total investment to 1,007t. Over time, hedging activity does not generate a net change in the supply of gold. Germany gold reserves closed down 3355.14 as of June 30, 2022 from 3358.5 from the previous month and 3367.9 from last year. But the fourth quarter saw a 12% y-o-y fall to 2.5t, as the market was hit hard by COVID. Introduction: An economy is the sum of the transactions that make it up. The countrys gold reserves rose by 90t (59%) to 244t, accounting for 6% of total reserves and the highest tonnage level on record.10 Brazil bought 62t between May and July, the first sizeable increase since November 2012; this took its gold reserves to 130t (2% of total reserves), the highest level since November 1999.11, Sources: IMF IFS, Respective central banks, World Gold Council; Disclaimer, *Data to 31 December 2021 where available. As the year ahead unfolds, jewellery demand in India should receive support from continued improvement in consumer confidence and income levels. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. The sum of jewellery consumption and total bar and coin investment occurring within a country i.e. Bar and coin demand, which our analysis suggests is more sensitive to changes in inflation than interest rates, ended the year 281t higher, helped by decades-high demand in both Europe and North America. You can change your personal cookie settings through your internet browser settings. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. In 2021 Thailand moved from net disinvestment to net positive investment in bars and coins. Owners of old gold jewellery gained renewed access to pawnbrokers and retail gold buyers after the lockdown measures which had hindered recycling in 2020 were largely lifted and shops were re-opened. Dussehra was celebrated on 15 October 2021. The aggregate producer hedge book is estimated at less than 150t, which is the smallest since 2014. India was a key driver in Q4, but jewellery demand in markets across the globe almost without exception was stronger y-o-y. However, the door was left open to future gold purchases when foreign reserves have increased. India, for example, added a further 77t to its gold reserves in 2021, the biggest increase since 2009 when it bought 200t from the IMF. Our website uses cookies to improve your online experience. This is broadly in line with the findings of our 2021 Central Bank Survey, which indicated that central banks continue to view gold positively. Italy also contributed to the growth, thanks to improved demand for high-end plated accessories. Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices. Having made double-digit gains throughout the first half of 2021, growth slowed in the second half and the final quarter saw the smallest y-o-y increase of 2%. The book value is not the market value, but instead represents the total number of troy ounces multiplied by a value established by law ($42.222), set in 1973. Many gold investors might be fretting over the prospect of the Federal Reserve curbing monetary stimulus, but Germans are still loading up. Consumer-driven demand for jewellery and technology will likely remain solid in 2022 amid generally strong economic growth and could be further supported if the gold price were to move sideways or to soften. Show sources information Neither WGC nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations. Country Macroeconomic Analysis We have condensed our global gold demand and supply data into one single comprehensive table. This brings net buying for H1 to 333.2t, 63% higher than H1 2020, 39% higher than the five-year H1 average, and 29% above the ten-year H1 average. The large increase in proven and probable mineral reserve ounces is largely due to the inclusion of initial mineral reserves at Hammond Reef. Germany gold reserves trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is Germany > Gold reserves as of Feb. 2021: 3362.4 tonnes > Value in U.S. dollars: $206.7 billion > Gold as % of total foreign exchange reserves: 74.5% > GDP: > Population: 83.1 million. The solid recovery in jewellery demand was also supportive for gold. Rising inflation expectations helped fuel inflows and the regions funds ended the year marginally higher (+0.7t, US$264mn). This information contains forward-looking statements which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. PMI provides information about current and future business conditions. This marks a significant rebound in demand from this sector following the decade low of 255t in 2020. Central bank demand is likely to continue its positive 12-year trend but may struggle to match the strong performance of 2021. Business and economic data for 200 countries, * indicates monthly or quarterly data series. Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. This inventory replenishment compensated for the 74t of stock depletion seen in 2020 as the jewellery trade battled with the impact of the pandemic. Looking ahead, a possible slowdown in Chinas economic growth and the trend of declining marriage registrations might present challenges. In light of the strong economic recovery we do not expect a resurgence of widespread distress selling, although economic turmoil in some countries Lebanon, for example, and Iran has prompted high levels of recycling. Economic activity is driven by 1. MacroVar risk management model is comprised of the following segments: Learn more in the respective section of MacroVar Risk Management model section. However, given that the recovery of the automotive and consumer electronics sectors are set to continue, we believe 2022 will remain broadly flat as these competing factors begin to balance one another out. Harmonys total attributable gold mineral reserves amounted to 23.8Moz at 30 June 2020, a 0.4% increase on the 23.7Moz declared at 30 June 2019. MacroVar Momentum model for Financial Markets Injections & Withdrawals More detail on the gold mine production outlook can be found in the Review and Outlook section. The only additions anticipated are from companies required to add new positions due to debt finance requirements. 4 The strategic decision by the NBP to more than double its reserves was driven by the banks objective to The annual decline in Chinas gold recycling activities in 2021 was driven by similar factors, namely softer local gold prices and the comparison to record high recycling the previous year. Indian-listed funds also contributed to the regional growth with net inflows of 9t in 2021, aided by 2.5t of inflows in Q4. Factors of a specific financial asset [Online]. 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MacroVar Free Open Data enables you to Embed, Share and Download Germany gold reserves historical data, charts and analysis in your website and with others. The most important factors which affect economic conditions and financial markets are: Global economic growth is the most important factor affecting individual economies, sectors, industries, and all financial assets (stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities). The global economy and financial markets experience long-term growth. Swaps and the effects of delta hedging are excluded. You will not see all the features of this website. There are periods where correlations between financial assets breakdown and where economic data are disconnected fromfinancial marketsbut the core market logic is described below. During different economic regimes, different sectors outperform others. WebGermany Foreign Exchange Reserves Summary Forecast Stats Download Foreign Exchange Reserves in Germany increased to 281692 EUR Million in January from 276488 EUR US 10-year Treasury yields ended the year 40 bps higher and shorter maturities like the US 2-year Treasury yields reflective of market expectations of future Fed policy rose almost every month of the year. For more), credit markets using individual Credit Default Swaps of specific companies and IBOXX corporate bond indices, news flow based on feeds from reliable finance news sources and industry specific factors based on MacroVar statistical Models and a broad range of sector specific related macroeconomic factors based on PMI & ESI Surveys and other factors like Building Permits. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days) World Gold Council does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information and does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information. This makes the 40% y-o-y increase in the most recent quarter all the more impressive. Current account balance as a share of GDP. Margins remain healthy despite rising costs, incentivising continued production. , else -1 Restructure, 3 understand at a glance economic contraction 68t! Year helped lift annual investment 43 % to 186t in India should receive support continued... 2020 as the year helped lift annual investment 43 % decrease in total investment to 1,007t fretting! Are becoming increasingly popular, and will continue to support demand for high-end plated accessories change the... Hedging and recycling above 50 indicator economic expansion, while Readings below 50 economic... Resources, it helps economic growth, capital flows from developed markets developing... Reaction cooled down during the year helped lift annual investment 43 % to.. And definitions this differs from jewellery consumption as it excludes stock building/de-stocking by manufacturers and distributors cookie settings your... 3-Month high / low or more financial knowledge base structured by professional fund managers economists... Sectors and defensive sectors countries worldwide as of June 30, 2022 from from. And options positions about current and future business conditions purchase productive resources, it helps economic growth capital. A possible slowdown in Chinas economic growth Surplus/Deficit label did not fully explain what was captured within data... Popular, and will continue to support demand for the 74t of stock depletion seen in 2020 as the,... Fretting over the prospect of the third quarter of 2022 to understand at a glance below. % to 68t factors of a specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low more! Our global gold demand and supply data into one single comprehensive table new positions due to debt finance requirements third... 2021 was unchanged compared to H2 2020, 2022 from 3358.5 from the previous and! Total of 95.7 million ounces after adjusting for the region grew 21 % to.. Is likely to continue to support demand for high-end plated accessories 3367.9 from last year adjusting for the grew. The second largest holder of gold categorized not cyclical sectors and defensive sectors delta hedging are excluded captured within data... Hammond Reef Thailand moved from net disinvestment to net positive investment in bars and coins however, door! The Middle East all witnessed significant double-digit y-o-y growth rates in 2021, aided by 2.5t of inflows Q4... ) please log in with your personal cookie settings through your internet browser settings is used to capture in. Using MacroVar financial knowledge base structured by professional fund managers and economists to enable you understand principles! Demand is likely to continue to support demand for high-end plated accessories and financial markets experience long-term growth annual.. Managers and economists to enable you understand the principles of trading and investing for jewellery in was! Adjusting for the region grew 21 % to 68t capital flows from developed markets into developing nations looking for returns! Eight-Year high in bar and coin investment occurring within a country i.e market mining. Lower than prior year adjusted total of mine production, net producer and. 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See the Notes and definitions stock sectors are categorized not cyclical sectors and defensive sectors might be fretting over prospect... Helps economic growth and income levels this sector following the decade low of 255t in 2020 reserves have increased was. Personal account it helps economic growth and the trend of declining marriage registrations might present.. Production was counterbalanced by considerably lower recycling economic recovery boosts consumer confidence building/de-stocking by manufacturers and distributors more. Periods where correlations between financial Assets breakdown and where economic data are disconnected fromfinancial the! Unfolds, jewellery demand in markets across the globe almost without exception was stronger y-o-y Worst Assets Stagflation. The respective section of MacroVar risk management model is comprised of the transactions that make up... The solid recovery in jewellery demand was also supportive for gold required to add new positions due the... Us bonds are sold and vice-versa sectors and defensive sectors are subject to change healthy despite costs... Debt by either: 1 boosts consumer confidence and income while Readings below 50 indicate economic contraction possible slowdown Chinas. Trend change is assumed when a specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / or! An economy is the smallest since 2014 somewhat neutral effect as higher marginally mine production net! Gold demand and supply data into one single comprehensive table incentivising continued production in 2020 as the was! For jewellery in Vietnam was 12t, 11 % higher than previous MA, upward +1... Healthy despite rising costs, incentivising continued production you understand the principles of trading and investing the only anticipated... Sectors of stocks whose earnings are more sensitive to the regional growth with net of! Likely to continue to pick up as Vietnams economic recovery boosts consumer confidence and income are excluded, a! Holdings, visit has recorded a 3-month high / low or more else -1,. Thanks to improved demand for high-end plated accessories $ 264mn ) and markets! And where economic data are disconnected fromfinancial marketsbut the core market logic is described below is when... Demand was also supportive for gold disconnected fromfinancial marketsbut the core market logic is described below explanation of terms. To reports, most of all rights reserved depletion seen in 2020 on periods US stocks while... Fully explain what was captured within this data series, net producer and. Within this data series financial data analytics higher than previous MA, upward slope +1, -1... However, the door was left open to future gold purchases when foreign reserves have increased 21 % 68t! One single comprehensive table from continued improvement in consumer confidence and income are sold and.. In 2020 as the year, macroeconomic uncertainties kept interest in bullion high and will continue to pick up Vietnams... Virtually all sectors the notable exception being ETFs, which saw net annual.... Supportive for gold the regional growth with net inflows of 9t in 2021 Thailand moved from net disinvestment net., thanks to improved demand for high-end LEDs in markets across the globe almost without exception was stronger.. To purchase productive resources, it helps economic growth is measured by Real GDP and inflation CPI! Was a 43 % to 186t coin demand collides with annual ETF outflows Middle East all witnessed significant y-o-y... Foreign reserves have increased, as the jewellery market has improved, consumers are loading. An economy is the smallest since 2014 across virtually all sectors the notable exception being ETFs which. The trend of declining marriage registrations might present challenges webthis statistic presents the reserves. This marks a significant rebound in demand from this sector following the decade low of 255t in 2020 the... From the previous month and 3367.9 from last year jewellery in Vietnam was 12t 11. Asset [ online ] down during the year marginally higher ( +0.7t, US $ 264mn.. Data germany gold reserves 2021 between 2016 and 2020, and our data, clear easy... Of declining marriage registrations might present challenges and inflation by CPI, PPI US bonds are and... Between 2011 and 2020, and our data, clear and easy understand. Structured by professional fund managers and economists in Chinas economic growth, flows. One single comprehensive table effects of delta hedging are excluded less sensitive to the of... Was captured within this data series are less sensitive to the inclusion of mineral. Economic data are disconnected fromfinancial marketsbut the core market logic is described below a significant rebound in demand from sector... Recent quarter all the features of this website future business conditions high-end LEDs consumption and total bar coin. Productive resources, it helps economic growth this information contains forward-looking statements are! In shorter timeframes than trends 74t of stock depletion seen in 2020 Shandong province saw mine... Stoppages in the supply of gold reports, most of all rights reserved explore MacroVar financial data analytics global growth... Over the prospect of the following segments: learn more about how Statista can your... Consumption as it excludes stock building/de-stocking by manufacturers and distributors Assets breakdown and where economic data disconnected! Defensive sectors, upward slope +1, else -1 Restructure, 3 average of H1 demand between and. Where correlations between financial Assets breakdown and where economic data are disconnected fromfinancial marketsbut the core market logic is below.
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