It's like Russia through the looking glass, says Nina Krushcheva, Putin is redrawing an Iron Curtain across emerging Europe, says strategist, 'The world has changed, there is no going back', policy analyst says on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Xi is the 'one person in the world' who has leverage over Putin, says economist, Russias chaotic and confusing invasion of Ukraine is baffling military analysts, wrote in an article for the Atlantic Council on Thursday. Russia-Ukraine War: Insights and Analysis Lessons from a year of war in Ukraine One year on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Harvard Kennedy School faculty members reflect on how the conflict has changed the way we think about vital global issues and what lessons it has taught us. The war will leave Russia diminished in military, economic, and geopolitical terms. Moscow claims that Washington is attempting to force Switzerland to drop its arms re-export ban amid the ongoing war . As long as there is no direct conflict between Russia and Nato then there is no reason for this crisis, bad as it is, to descend into a full-scale world war. A few weeks ago, I spoke to a former Ukrainian co-worker at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv. By Karoun Demirjian. We want to hear from you. Beliefs in the costs of war and the costs of peace also matter. Swedish Air Force/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images The Kremlin underestimated Ukrainians determination to resist, says Steven Pifer, an affiliate at Stanfords Center for International Security and Cooperation. In his mind, the communist leadership tore Ukraine from its true home in the Russian empire. As a scholar of peace and conflict, I have 20 years of experience working to help people establish and maintain peace after conflict. Peace talks between the two countries have launched, and then faltered, multiple times. U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. The Pentagon's $842 billion 2024 budget request does not include additional funding for Ukraine in its war against Russia due to the unpredictability of the conflict's longevity, officials . Putin is isolated from other points of view: CIA director, The thing to watch is how fast the Russians take control of Kyiv, says Hoover Institution's Niall Ferguson. Participants from the 2023 Umrah trip gathered in front of Islams holiest site, the Kaaba, in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. That difference in how the two nations saw the end of the Cold War is now playing out through . A man sits outside his destroyed building . "Putin can be replaced. Here are three key points that help assess the possibility of whether a war might end. The plan got lukewarm welcomes in both Russia and Ukraine. But Larry Summers says regulators have significant tools at their disposal, need to be vigilant of specific vulnerabilities. People often accuse Putin of wanting to resurrect the Soviet Union. What might people misunderstand or underestimate about the conflict? This thing could really drag on for a long time.". hide caption. It would also require Ukrainian people to make peace with an enemy whose wartime strategy has been to carry out the deliberate, targeted brutalization of the Ukrainian people.. Most think at least another year. Mr. A man walks across the damaged Svyatogirsk bridge in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on 12 March. Putins alleged war crimes: who are the Ukrainian children being taken by Russia? The U.S. is also training about 100 Ukrainians on the Patriot anti-missile system in Oklahoma. March 1, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. EST. Will the Ukrainian military build on that with additional counteroffensives, probably in the spring, after the winter thaw and mud season ends? Putin, I think, has made an active decision to mobilize forces to the front lines, getting as many bodies into this [in an] to attempt to retake ground and gain additional leverage to lure Ukraine into any future negotiations. In this hypothetical scenario, Putin would be prevented from toppling Kyiv's government and establishing a puppet regime, while "the determination and skill of the Ukrainian resistance forces a stalemate on the battlefield that favors the defenders," the Atlantic Council's strategists Pavel, Engelke and Cimmino noted. Most Ukrainians don't want to be ruled by Russia or a Russian puppet: Professor. Vlad Mykhnenko, an expert in the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford laid out three potential scenarios for a Russian defeat. He noted that it's a "non-starter" for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine "because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III.". Bondarev suggested that Putin may attempt to present whatever small gains he has made in Ukraine as a victory. In the meantime, NATO countries "would likely provide covert but very robust defensive assistance to the Ukrainian resistance.". Russia attacked Ukraine when its pro-Russian president was deposed in early 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a conference as part of a summit called to attempt to find a lasting political solution to the civil war in Syria, at Vahdettin Mansion in Istanbul, Turkey . Victories on the battlefield allow the winning aggressor to demand more, while defeats may mean those losing ground have to settle for less. A Ukrainian military official hinted in a recent interview of when Ukraine expects the war with Russia might end. Xi also plans to speak with Volodymyr Zelenskiy for the first time since the start of the war, according to the Wall Street Journal. Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling said the biggest challenge for the Ukrainian army will be quickly integrating all the different weapon systems theyre getting from Western allies. By Frank Langfitt, international correspondent, Children look out from a carriage window as a train prepares to depart from a station in Lviv, Ukraine, on March 3, 2022. Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said on Monday that relations between Russia and China were a major factor supporting global stability in the world today, Reuters reports, citing Russian state-owned news agency Tass. The independent channel TV Rain and the liberal Echo of Moscow radio have been shut down, while more than 15,000 people have been arrested for protesting against the war. In the coming weeks, Hertling expects that Russia will likely increase missile attacks and its air and naval forces will continue to strike against Ukraines infrastructure. The Ukrainian flag flutters between buildings destroyed in bombardment in the Ukrainian town of Borodianka. Budanov's prediction could also be altered by a possible major military offensive from Russia that multiple Ukrainian officials have warned could occur in the coming weeks. The move comes after Putin ordered troops into two pro-Russian, breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine on Monday. Grigory Yavlinsky, the founder of Russia's Yabloko party, a social-liberal party that has deputies in five regional parliaments, told Newsweek from Moscow that propaganda may affect how a loss for Russia is presented. But polls show that does not equal pacifism, with the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supporting a prolonged defensive war. Mowatt-Larssens greatest concern is that at some point in the next year, Putin will decide that his army is no longer capable of taking back what he views as Russian territories. After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine. Rapid escalation of Ukraine crisis fuels fear of confrontation between Russia and the West. The human and economic costs of this war are very high for both Russia and Ukraine, although they are clearly much higher for Ukraine. Whether the country leans toward greater authoritarianism under Putin, or away from him altogether, will largely determine how Russia behaves with the rest of the world," they added. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its second week, with Russian forces continuing to advance into Ukrainian cities, sending residents fleeing from their homes or sheltering. Events relating to Ukraine's brief period of independence after World War I are now national holidays, as are days that celebrate a Ukrainian Cossack state that existed around the 17th century. Second, some people in America and Europe seem to misunderstand the roots of the conflict and have bought the Kremlin narrative that NATO enlargement caused the war. For his bravery, for his confidence in Ukraine and for his Glory to Ukraine!, Original reporting and incisive analysis, direct from the Guardian every morning. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told The Guardian in December that thousands of soldiers who were part of Russia's mobilization drive in October should be sufficiently trained to take. The fighting has caused 13 million to flee their homes and become refugees outside of Ukraine or internally displaced within. What comes next for Ukraine could be bleak, these experts say, with many expecting a long and drawn-out conflict, noting that even in the most positive scenario that Russia withdraws its troops and Ukraine remains a sovereign nation Europe is unlikely to return to the prewar status quo. Britain's Royal Navy said it was escorting a Russian frigate and tanker in waters. He spent more than 25 years working with the U.S. State Department, where he focused on Americas relations with the former Soviet Union and Europe, as well as arms control and security issues. Stanford Medicine researchers have found a mechanism behind one of the most common symptoms of long COVID shortness of breath. ", Unlike scenario one, the situation would develop slower and less dramatically, providing Putin with enough time to plead for a ceasefire or short-term settlement on almost any terms, said Mykhnenko: "Once again, no nukes will be deployed, as with Russian soldiers deserting, there would not be an army left to utilize any opening a nuclear strike could make. Photos by Chip Somodevilla/Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP/Getty Images, four territories it illegitimately annexed, Fox News Shouldn't Get Away With This | Opinion, Nobody Is Surprised by What Happens on Primetime TV | Opinion. "Independence Day," marking the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is now referred to as "the restoration of independence." Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. The best precedent for this is perhaps the HelmsBurton Act, which extended U.S. sanctions on Cuba toward any foreign company doing business with both Cuba and the U.S. at the same time. Twelve months into the conflict, what do you find most troubling? Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be "fraught with danger," the analysts warned. Dmitry Astakhov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images Both countries have suffered major economic declines since the war. "This would be entirely in keeping with Kremlin propaganda, which has insisted for the past eight years that Yanukovych was illegally removed by a Western-backed coup," Kuzio noted. The invasion has been a disaster for President Vladimir Putin and in order to justify it at home he at least has to take control of Ukraine's Donbas region, after which he can falsely claim that the army saved Russian citizens persecuted by Ukraine. What does the ICC arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin mean in reality? What the U.S. has done, though, is build a coalition to leverage the global oil market against Russia's energy sector. Second, Ukrainian people have suffered almost unimaginable attacks and losses in 2022. Mykhnenko said a third scenario could see the war in Ukraine rage on for another two years, with growing discontent in Russia, a slow Russian retreat in some places, and troops holding the frontline in others. The Italian government has said Russian mercenary group Wagner is behind a surge in migrant boats trying to cross the central Mediterranean as part of Moscows strategy to retaliate against countries supporting Ukraine, Reuters reports. Ukrainian forces made progress in September 2022 when they retook two Ukrainian regions Kharkiv and Kherson that Russia had occupied. It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both. Russian forces fired two rockets at a school in Avdiivka, according to the head of the office of the Ukrainian presidency, Andriy Yermak. Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed. A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force. The Ukrainians in early March 2022 sought to negotiate an end to the war and, among other things, offered to accept neutrality. That is a condition where I think Vladimir Putin will use tactical nuclear weapons, he said, and why the U.S. must start thinking now about whether Russia can be deterred and how the U.S. will respond if Russia deploys them or causes some other mass casualty disaster. CNBC takes a look at the possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen in each of them: Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's and the West's next moves unpredictable. Meanwhile, Ukraine had to pretty much start from scratch, establishing its own treaties and erecting embassies for the first time without approval from Moscow. So buckle up, we need to be deterring not only attacks on Kyiv but the rest of the lines.". Without a way to enforce an agreement, how can one side trust the other side to live up to the commitments it made to stop fighting? Last week contained a grim milestone: It was one year ago on Friday that Russian forces began marching towards Ukraine's capital city of Kyiv. One local resident was killed in the attack. Ukrainians see this war as existential. Moscow does not object to renewing a deal allowing the safe export of grain from Ukraines Black Sea ports but only for a period of 60 days, half the term of the previous renewal, Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Vershinin said. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. He's just an ordinary dictator," said Bondarev, 42, who quit his job as an arms control expert at Russia's diplomatic mission to Geneva in May 2022, and is the only Russian diplomat to have quit publicly over the war. In other words, the war affected nearly every family here. (Image credit: Damian M. Marhefka). The Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Vladimir Putin and a staunch supporter of the war in Ukraine, met Russias president to discuss the war, according to reports. But the many banking and trade sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe early on have done little to hurt Russias ability to wage war and thanks to cooperation from allies like China, India, and Iran, Russian consumers have not felt a significant pinch to their quality of life, said Alexandra Vacroux, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard. Conversely, Russia successfully halted a wider collapse of its forces and appears to be in a stronger position militarily heading into the spring than it was in the fall of 2022. In February 2023, a senior Ukrainian official said that peace talks are out of the question without Ukraines reclaiming its territory that Russia overtook 2022. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters, Russia's arms export industry is collapsing. Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. The conflict has been a disaster for both countries, especially Russia, he noted. Taras Kuzio, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, wrote in an article for the Atlantic Council on Thursday that Moscow has indicated that it is aiming at "the complete military conquest of Ukraine followed by a partition and a massive purge of the civilian population.". Russia negotiated a cease-fire in 1994, which ended the first war, but then restarted another war three years later and ramped up its onslaught. The UK will invest an extra 5bn in the armed forces over two years and increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP. All Rights Reserved. I thus believe the West should provide Ukraine with significant military assistance now, so that the Ukrainian military can either push the Russians out or, at a minimum, make such progress on the battlefield that Kremlin calculations change and Moscow negotiates a settlement on terms that Kyiv can accept. The human immune system is pretty good at knowing whats making us sick, but only now is science tuning in to what nature has to say. Putin illegally annexed four territories from Ukraine in September and now presents Ukraine's efforts backed by the West to take back its own territory as a fascist attack on the Russian homeland. American foreign policy starting in the 1990s has played a role in Russias misperceptions, Hill argued. At the same time, the war unleashed by Vladimir Putin has proven a disaster for Russia. Once both sides have a clear sense of the fightings likely outcome, additional negotiations or more fighting become less important. China has refrained from condemning Russia for its invasion. In this scenario, "the conflict drains Moscow's coffers and resolve, ultimately forcing a withdrawal after much violence and death," an outcome that has echoes of Russia's ill-fated, unpopular and costly invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, a conflict that lasted 10 years and led to the deaths of 15,000 Russian soldiers. Harvard doctor who directs Home Base health program details experiences treating invisible wounds, including efforts to keep patients from isolating, Jessica Tisch explains why being sanitation commissioner is a dream job if you care about delivering essential services, Recent event examines what social sciences can tell us about rising economic, geopolitical power, 2023 The President and Fellows of Harvard College. Most warn that Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available. Moscow has advanced demands that it must know are non-starters. Britain declared that the UKs security hinged on the outcome of the Ukraine war in an update to its foreign policy framework published on Monday. So far, however, Moscow has shown no readiness to negotiate seriously. In the main image, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is seen at the U.S. Capitol on December 21, 2022, in Washington, D.C. But at some point later this year, President Biden is certain to seek more money for Ukraine, and we'll see how the Republicans in the House respond. That was well understood in Moscow. This training has been picking up steam. The only way to keep Russia from fighting or winning this war is to give the Ukrainians military support, she said. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address in central Moscow on Feb. 21. Should Putin be unable to win the war on his preferred terms, he may eventually be forced to step down as Russian leader, Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned publicly over the invasion of Ukraine last year, told Newsweek. In fact, the world should brace for an escalation of the conflict between the two nations with the United States getting more involved. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be "devastated" in the process, the strategists said. Russia's military strategy has at times been beset with logistical problems, confusing the picture of what Russia's main or immediate goals are. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long maintained that his country would not accept peace negotiations with Russia until Putin concedes the four territories it illegitimately annexed from Ukraine in September. In this scenario, Russia could hope that the. Even though both Soviet republics ostensibly managed their own foreign policies, Russia was represented at the United Nations as the USSR, and all issues directed at Russia went through the USSR. Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. Dmitry Astakhov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images, Swedish Air Force/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images, After a year of war in Ukraine, all signs point to more misery with no end in sight, Want to support the people in Ukraine? Video. Experts say the cause of the military conflict can be tied to a complicated history, Russia's tensions with NATO and the ambitions of Vladimir Putin. The global oil economy is really complicated. Analysts of course agree that an unequivocal withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine would be best possible outcome for the country in its dire situation. This includes overwhelming domestic support for joining NATO and the European Union, despite both blocs expressing hesitation to Ukraine's membership for decades preceding the war. Putin may be forced out of power should Russia lose the war in Ukraine, former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev told Newsweek. Indeed, in this "miracle" scenario, the analysts said that the Kremlin realizes that Russia "will pay an exorbitant price" for its invasion of Ukraine and, facing the prospect of a long and costly slog in Ukraine, coupled with economic collapse and diplomatic isolation, Putin would order a withdrawal of his troops. That could drag on for months or years. "Crimea is Ukrainian territory, we can use any weapon on our territory," he answered. Much of Ukraine remained without electricity, heat and water two days after a devastating series of Russian missile attacks against the country's . First, the Kremlin severely underestimates Ukraines resolve to resist. A man whom all Ukrainians will know. This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. Putins popularity appears to have remained high during the war. As part of that coverage we asked you: After a year of unpredictability, what do you still want to know? Yuri Kadobnov/AFP via Getty Images If the costs of war including human lives, money or more intangible qualities, such as prestige are low, one side might keep fighting for its goals. Many allies at this point are not ready to commit to going to war against Russia on Ukraines behalf. Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, told ABC News in an interview shared by the outlet on Wednesday that he expects the "hottest" fighting between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces to occur in March. ", Bondarev said he isn't sure that Putin will be able to convince the population, however, as "most people don't want war, they want peace.". Budanov added that he expects Ukraine's military to make a large push against the invading Russians in the spring. "This situation shouldn't be allowed to happen. When opposing groups reach an agreement in other types of conflicts such as an agreement to end a labor union strike, for instance there is typically a government in place to help enforce its agreement. [g] Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas War. Yevgeny Prigozhin responded: We have no idea whats happening with the migrant crisis, we dont concern ourselves with it.. It was one year ago last week that Russia invaded. Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well. Life is tough: electricity on four hours, then off four hours; little heat; and regular air-raid alerts. On the other hand, the region has been the site of a bloody eight-year war between the Ukrainian army and Russia-backed separatists (about 14,000 people have been killed in this war). Michael Kimmage, a history professor at the Catholic University of America, told Newsweek recently that Zelenskyemboldened by Putin's recent battlefield lossescould very well try to regain control of Crimea. Second, a moratorium on NATO expansion eastward. Chinas president, Xi Jinping, is planning to visit Russia as soon as next week, people familiar with the matter said, according to Reuters. And because war is so costly, it is normally better to accept even part of an envisioned peace agreement than continue to fight. In every war, however, unforeseen developments unfold that allow progress toward eventual peace. The war will leave Russia diminished in military, economic, and geopolitical terms. I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved. Legally speaking, Russia and Ukraine have different relationships to their predecessor states. That said, war is, by its nature, unpredictable. How? The U.N. says more than 8 million Ukrainians fled to Europe since the start of the invasion. Image source, EPA Image caption, This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. "Ukrainians will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. Putins agenda, to wipe out Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a people, is longstanding and deeply held in Russian society and by the nations power brokers. However, even with such a settlement, Ukraine would continue to face a hostile Russian neighbor. Reiter, the author of "How Wars End," was intrigued by the fact that the conflict in Ukraine was such an old-fashioned war. Russian officials, on the other hand, have said Ukraine must recognize those regions as Russian territories before peace talks can proceed. Fiona Hill, A.M. 91, Ph.D. 98, who served as senior director for European and Russian Affairs at the National Security Council from 2017 to 2019, said the U.S. and the West are still stuck in a historical narrative about Ukraine created by Putin. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. ", This would result in a "rapid frontline collapse.". 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